Chicago again. The venue where Ireland finally smashed the All Blacks hoodoo in 2016 now stages a prime-time November opener, rebranded as The Gallagher Cup – The Rematch. Kick-off is 3:00pm local in Chicago, which is 8:00pm in Ireland—ideal Saturday night viewing for an Irish audience.
The stage & the stakes
Soldier Field’s bowl will feel strangely familiar to both sets of supporters. Ireland’s first-ever win over New Zealand came on this pitch, a 40–29 classic that still crackles in the memory. The organisers are leaning into that history with the “Rematch” billing, and both unions have been pushing the event hard in the build-up. With Japan, Australia and South Africa to follow for Ireland across November, this is the tone-setter for the entire window.
Ireland: settled core, selective tweaks
Andy Farrell returns from Lions duty to a group that looks reassuringly familiar. Captain Caelan Doris’ inclusion after shoulder surgery underlines how close to full-strength Ireland want to be for Week 1, though there are still bumps and bruises to monitor. Notably, Mack Hansen is expected to miss the Chicago test, which may nudge selection towards a sturdier aerial profile on the wings and back-field. Expect the typical Ireland blueprint: high ruck efficiency, varied lineout shapes, and contestable kicking to squeeze territory and force errors.
All Blacks: transition without timidity
New Zealand arrive in the US with their usual cocktail of speed, skill and strike power. Even in a “between cycles” year, the back three and midfield can flip field position in a heartbeat if Ireland kick long without pressure or lose detail at the chase. The breakdown is the All Blacks’ launch pad: quick ball equals chaos; slow ball brings handling errors and penalties.
Where this game tilts (Irish lens)
- Breakdown discipline: Ireland’s capacity to live on the right side of the whistle is everything. When they do, their phase accuracy tends to grind opponents into kickable penalties or red-zone maul pressure.
- Set-piece deception: The 5-man/7-man lineout mix and the ability to maul “just enough” to drag defenders in will open the seams for pull-back plays.
- Aerial lane control: On a fast, dry track, the chase line is your defence. Win the hang-time duels and Chicago becomes a territorial treadmill for New Zealand. Lose them and it’s turnover ball in space—never where you want to be against the All Blacks.
Form & context that matter
- Venue effect: Neutral ground helps Ireland; the logistics are shared, the surface is quick, and the occasion suits a structured side comfortable playing without the ball for long spells.
- Psychology: The 2016 memory isn’t decisive, but it removes mystique. This modern rivalry has been tight and testy—exactly the kind of contest where Ireland’s detail can tell.
- Match rhythm: Opening weekends can be messy. If Ireland’s ruck speed starts at their usual 3-second clip and the penalty count stays single-digits, the Chicago script tilts green.
Betting angles for Irish punters (keep stakes sensible)
- Ireland 1–12 winning margin – These sides rarely separate by more than a score when Ireland execute. Margin markets keep you onside if it turns into a tactical arm-wrestle rather than a track meet.
- Alternative Total Points – Over – Soldier Field, prime-time conditions and two elite attacking systems can produce a points-friendly game. If the main line looks punchy, shop the alternatives.
- Anytime Tryscorer (Back-three focus) – Both teams generate edge chances via kick-pass and pull-back shapes. Prioritise form wingers or full-backs over pack tryscorers.
Prices move quickly in test week—compare markets and consider bet builders for tighter angles. (We’re not quoting odds here; check your preferred firm on Saturday.)
Key risk factors
- Ref interpretation at the breakdown (penalties can snowball).
- Travel & time zone (small edges in week one).
- Back-three selection if Hansen’s absence reshapes Ireland’s aerial plan.
Broadcast & basics: Ireland vs New Zealand, Soldier Field, Saturday 1 Nov, 8:00pm Irish time (3:00pm local).
Responsible Gambling: This preview is for information only. If you bet, set a budget, stick to it, and never chase losses. If gambling stops being fun, stop and seek help.
