Betting News By Donal

Point Of Law wins the Melbourne Cup – and rescues JP McManus’s A$2m night

The Limerick punter’s A$1m headline bet on Hopewell Rock never got involved, but a late wager on the former royal runner turned a costly Cup into a winning one.

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Point Of Law winning the Melbourne Cup at Flemington
WinnerPoint Of Law
TrainerCiaron Maher
JockeyEthan Brown
Margin3¾ lengths
Runners23
GoingSoft 5
Best IrishSons And Lovers, 4th
McManus pickHopewell Rock, 9th

Point Of Law, the horse bought from King Charles after his Bahrain Trophy win at Newmarket in July, came from off the pace to win the Melbourne Cup at Flemington by three and three-quarter lengths under Ethan Brown.

It was a remarkable day for trainer Ciaron Maher. He saddled seven of the 23 runners and filled the first three places, with Zahrann second and Juja Kibo third. It is reported to be the first time one trainer has done that in the race’s history, and five of the first six home came from his yard.

For Irish punters, the bigger story was the night before. At Melbourne’s Call of the Card function, JP McManus and his betting partner Paul Byrne staked more than A$2 million across eight horses – including a A$1 million bet on the George Boughey-trained Hopewell Rock. That one went down. But they had also backed Point Of Law to win A$2m at 15-2.

How the race was run

Maher’s outsider Royal Supremacy went straight to the front and was allowed to build a huge advantage – reported at up to 20 lengths at one stage. Nobody in the main pack wanted to chase, so the rest of the field crawled along behind him.

That shaped everything. Brown kept Point Of Law settled in the chasing group, and once the pack finally quickened and he found room, the Frankel colt had the turn of foot to sweep past the tiring leader and pull clear. Royal Supremacy still held on for fifth.

The same pace scenario killed Hopewell Rock’s chance. Sent off at 13-2, he was caught flat-footed when the tempo lifted and could only stay on for ninth. His jockey Zac Lloyd summed it up: the field went ridiculously slow bar the leader.

Full result

PosHorseTrainerMargin
1Point Of LawCiaron Maher–
2ZahrannCiaron Maher3.75L
3Juja KiboCiaron Maher3.81L
4Sons And LoversIREJoseph O’Brien5.06L
5Royal SupremacyCiaron Maher5.16L
6ShockletzCiaron Maher5.56L
7James J BraddockIREJoseph O’Brien6.06L
8So You AreBjorn Baker6.41L
9Hopewell RockGeorge Boughey6.66L
10Middle EarthCiaron Maher7.41L
11TrustyourinstinctIREJoseph O’Brien7.71L
12Knight’s ChoiceJohn Symons & Sheila Laxon8.01L
13Soul Of SpainChris Waller9.01L
14ZakoumaGrahame Begg10.51L
15EnfjaarRoger Varian13.26L
16KizlyarIREJoseph O’Brien14.26L
17Mr MonacoCiaron Maher14.41L
18Strictly BusinessThomas Carberry16.91L
19Wine Dark SeaHarry Charlton19.66L
20Future HistoryGregory Hickman20.91L
21OnesmoothoperatorTim Fitzsimmons23.41L
22Goodie Two ShoesIREJoseph O’Brien25.66L
23VaubanGai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott30.16L

Margins are cumulative from the winner. Scratched: Asterix (Chris Waller) – withdrawn by stewards on race morning after a topical treatment was found on his forelegs; Waller was fined A$50,000.

How the McManus–Byrne bets fared

At Call of the Card the outsiders are priced up first, and the pair worked their way through the field from there. Here’s every bet reported on the night, and how each horse finished.

HorseBetFinishedResult
Soul Of SpainTo win A$2m at 33-113thLost
ZakoumaTo win A$2m at 40-114thLost
Goodie Two ShoesTo win A$2m at 25-122ndLost
So You AreTo win A$2m at 13-1, plus A$500k if placed8thLost
James J BraddockA$150k at 20-17thLost
Hopewell RockA$1m at 9-1 to 8-19thLost
TrustyourinstinctA$100k at 6-111thLost
Point Of LawTo win A$2m at 15-21stWon

Bets as reported from the Call of the Card function on 2 November.

McManus said afterwards they had made Hopewell Rock their main bet because they saw him as the most likely winner at a generous price. On a stamina-and-class view that made sense: he’d run well in the Ebor and was unexposed. What nobody could price in was a race that turned into a sprint behind a runaway leader.

Our take: did they come out ahead?

Probably yes, and only just. By our rough sums, the seven losing win bets cost about A$1.6m in stakes. The Point Of Law bet risked roughly A$267k to win A$2m – about £1.04m, or around €1.25m.

That leaves the pair around A$400,000 up before the So You Are place bet, whose stake wasn’t reported. That’s a healthy night for most of us, but a thin margin on a A$2m book.

The lesson for Irish punters is about pace, not form. In a 23-runner handicap, a runaway leader and a field that refuses to chase favours horses with a turn of foot over pure stayers. Spreading stakes across several runners is also why one late bet saved the night here.

The Irish angle

Joseph O’Brien ran five and had the best of the Irish-trained runners with Sons And Lovers, fourth under Dylan Browne McMonagle. James J Braddock ran with credit from the widest draw, stall 24, to finish seventh. McManus’s own pair were well beaten: Trustyourinstinct was 11th, and last year’s runner-up Goodie Two Shoes trailed in 22nd.

McManus came away full of praise for the Call of the Card format, where bookmakers lay bets live on stage. He suggested racing at home could learn from it, but don’t expect to see it at Leopardstown just yet.

18+ only. Please bet responsibly. The stakes in this story are far beyond what anyone should bet. Only bet what you can afford to lose, set deposit limits with your bookmaker, and take a break if it stops being fun. Free, confidential help is available from GamblingCare.ie.

Sources: Racing Post, Sportstralia, ABC News, SEN.

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